For many shops, caterers, transporters and online sellers, November and December can bring a third or more of a year's sales. January then arrives with school fees and a dip in spending. The businesses that thrive plan early, order the right stock, hire help properly and protect their cash for the weeks after the rush. Those that do not either run out of stock at the peak or sit on unsold goods in February. This guide gives a practical plan.

Start with last year

Pull out last year's sales by month and by product. Note the peak weeks, the best sellers and what you ran out of. If you have no records, use your memory and your customers' questions. Then adjust for this year: more customers, new products, price changes. The seasonal sales and stock planner turns last year's figures and your expected growth into a monthly plan and the stock to buy. Seasonal business planning and tax savings covers the wider picture.

Be realistic about demand

It is easy to be too optimistic. Build a cautious, an expected and an optimistic version. Order enough for the expected case and keep some flexibility for the optimistic one, for example by agreeing that your supplier can deliver more at short notice. How to forecast sales for a new product or shop shows how to test assumptions.

Order stock early, but not blindly

Suppliers run out too, and prices often rise before the festive season. Place orders early for fast-moving lines, and negotiate delivery dates. Use reorder levels so you know when to top up; the reorder level and safety stock calculator helps. If you import, allow for longer lead times and delays; read why imports get delayed at the port and tracking your shipment from order to delivery.

Price with care

Demand is high, but customers compare. Check your prices against competitors; the competitor price comparison sheet makes it easy. Make sure promotions still leave a margin. How to price your products and services in Kenya explains how to build a price from cost.

Hire seasonal staff properly

Extra hands are often needed. Decide how many, for how long and doing what. Give each person a written agreement with pay, hours and the end date. Casual and short-term workers have rights and there are tax and contribution rules; read casual workers and daily wage employees: rights and tax and hiring your first employee. Record pay and attendance with the weekly staff timesheet.

Protect your cash

The festive season ties up cash in stock and delays it in credit sales. Forecast month by month, including the January lull, when sales fall but rent, wages and loans continue. The 12-month cash flow forecast shows the lowest point, and cash flow forecast for a small business explains the method. Limit credit sales at the peak, and collect quickly; see how to collect late payments from customers.

Keep an eye on theft and error

Busy periods are when mistakes and theft happen. Count cash and stock more often, use receipts for every sale and separate duties where possible. Daily cash-up and stock control for a small shop gives a routine, and the daily cash-up sheet records it.

Plan for tax

Sales spike, and so does tax. Set aside the VAT or turnover tax as you sell, not at the end. If your sales may cross the VAT threshold, check with the VAT registration checker, and test your position with the turnover tax calculator. Keep records of every sale for your returns; the KRA filing calendar for small businesses shows the dates that fall around the holidays, when offices may be closed.

Think about the January dip

Plan for January before December starts. Keep a cash reserve for rent and salaries, reduce orders for slow lines and plan promotions to clear leftover stock. Year-end tax planning checklist for small businesses covers the closing tasks.

Review afterwards

In January, compare your plan with what happened: sales, stock left, staff costs and cash. Note what to change next year. A written review, even a page long, makes next year's plan better.

A simple countdown

Eight weeks before the peak, confirm your forecast and place the main stock orders. Six weeks before, hire and brief seasonal staff and check your equipment. Four weeks before, finalise prices, promotions and opening hours. Two weeks before, count stock, test your till and payment systems and make a cash plan for the first weeks of January. A short countdown, written down and shared with the team, keeps everyone focused when the shop gets busy.